Message to another list re:
Researcher David Spratt warns in a new report that "no political, social, or military system can cope" with the worst outcomes of climate change
[ — Chatham House Rules forbid posting the complete dialogue]
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The response:
— 'However, Spratt and Dunlop argue those reports are still too conservative with their estimates because they leave out a lot of negative climate change-related events that are hard to predict. Chan says Spratt and Dunlop are right in that most major climate-change reports are often edited to satisfy more than 100 different nations with competing agendas. “They somewhat under-represent the risks,” he said.'
— Exactly. Depending on what projections readers take from your link, 2050 may be accurate. Repeatedly I've posted that in 10 years, the world will be in a state of panic -- yet climate change will be accelerating. As your link proposes, climate change has been consistently underestimated.
— There are two drivers for climate change. The first is energy. Geologically-isolated plant and animal matter was once an undisturbed -- and unaffective -- storehouse for eons of solar energy. Without that energy, the Industrial Revolution and modern civilization could not have risen.
— The second is human mass behaviour. In mankind's existence, it has never deviated from consistent patterns of behaviour. The drive to acquire, to procreate, to alter the environment for immediate benefit, to sponsor omnivorous and competitive growth, and more, are hallmarks of human behaviour.
— In support of those aims, man harnessed the cheap, easy forms of energy stored under the earth's surface. In turn they disgorged, into the earth's atmosphere and oceans, the carbon once safely sequestered beneath men's feet. Slowly and imperceptibly, climate change began.
Predicted outcomes are a multidisciplinary synthesis.
— Has mankind seen any provable cases that demonstrate the thesis? Yes.
(1) Oil embargoes, beginning in November 1973. Conclusion: without fossil fuels modern civilization will die. Have we forgotten this lesson?
(2) 2007-2008: Financial and economic crises: Collapse of capitalism (note, NOT trade): Systemic Fear, Modern Finance and the Future of Capitalism
— I submit again that the logical outcome of approaching events is binary:
(A) Continue using fossil fuels and face the natural outcome: "Mother Nature will act, and she will be ruthless."
(B) Discontinue fossil fuel use rapidly -- as is necessary -- and suffer a huge decline in every aspect of modern life.
Either way, there will be gigantic disruption and ongoing negative feedbacks.
"Those who cannot imagine catastrophe are incapable of preventing it."
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