INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.085B was $0.061B)
Pardon me if you’ve heard this before. I’ve owned this stock for twenty years, so some repetition is natural.
MicroVision is an electronic component company based on an oscillating mirror incorporated into a chip (MEMS). By beaming light at it (typically red, green, and blue lasers), it is possible to create a projector small enough to fit in a smartphone. By sensing light reflecting from it, it is possible to create a camera, or at least capture images at various wavelengths depending on the sensors. It’s also possible to do both at once which also allows the user to interact with the image. The technology is proven. Components have been made in significant quantities. Management talks about great opportunities, something many shareholders agree with. (Just imagine getting 10% of the smartphone market.)
News is due any day. That’s something that’s been true for over ten years. It was stated before then, but a prior CEO didn’t mention the lack of a critical piece of technology. The company is known for not letting people know much about it. NDAs supposedly keep the company from mentioning any specifics. That situation is claimed so often, and so few deals have actually resulted in significant revenue, that management’s credibility has suffered - in some cases gone negative. Many interpreted an early mention of profitability in late 2019 as guidance. Now, as the second half of 2019 begins management has clarified that mention as a goal. While that may be true, many shareholders interpreted the statement more strongly, and feel the clarification is a continuation of obfuscation that the company is known for. And yet, rumors of potential orders from Microsoft, Apple, and others convince many to hold the stock, including me.
The company’s strategy has changed a few times in the last two decades: embedded cellphones directly displaying images on the user’s retina, head-mounted displays for maintenance and the military, bar code scanners, stand alone projectors, orthoscopes, head-up displays for cars, augmented reality glasses, rear and side view mirrors, LiDAR for autonomous vehicles, LiDAR for in-home security, etc. Ironically, if the company had continued development of some of the early projects they would be seen as industry leaders. At this point, the company is letting the customers lead, including letting the customers manage the communications. The lack of consistent strategy and the reliance on non-company sources means MVIS is more of a speculation than an investment.
One sign of eternal optimism: thinking that this description can be made moot between the time I type it and the time I post it because the company finally announced significant good and quantifiable news. I’ve held that feeling for two decades. Either persistence pays or doing the same thing and expecting something different is a definition of insanity - take your pick.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. Dilution no longer means that I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com ) |
