Hi Barry; It's hard to get a read right now, signals mixed.
Market trying hard to crawl back up..today almost a non-vent
compared to the week. Some down signs but they need to be
confirmed tomorrow before I buy them. The last six days
still has enough up signs that I would want to see more down
side tomorrow before calling this a reversal..
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Longer term I think we could sink lower if we don't soon break
8000, another 6 to 10% lower but thats a hard call to make
right now. The fix in Asia won't take if we don't go up,
maybe a bubble but not a real run.
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Remember six months ago all the talk show guest on CNBC being
hot on Latan America, well well..Asia looks like she may have
bottemed, but L.A. is still falling off the edge of the earth,
I like PCU , but now have reservations about her.
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I'm not focasing on any individual stocks, except that MOOV
VUPDA thingy, when that fiasco is over it's going to be
only "baskets" via no loads, WEBs, SPY, MDY and DIA , with the
exception of dividend stocks "when" I think they are oversold,
like AR. Stuff I can get in and out of fast, with very little
expence. Right now the SOX stocks are over sold, "BUT" they
could and will crumble a lot more if the market goes on down,
if that happens I'll load up on some calls, but only if I see
another 10% drop..if I play the SOX stocks on calls it'l be
almost across the board..that index is the wildest one going
it went up 67% last year off it's lows, and has fell back were
it now only has a 19% gain..that's the place for options.
Were the PSE made 43% but now holds only 25%..the SOX looks
like tornado alley but don't want to play her yet..not enough
down side for the premiums, market not right for calls.
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If DIS gets hit good I'll look at AOL puts again..odd as that may
sound, I think I found something there.
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There are some no loads that short stocks like BEARX, I have to
find more. I can short SPY , and MDY haven't asked about the
WEBs or DIA..but will get around to it.
If the market picks up there is one other small one I have been
watching GEGP she's over looked and over sold but it will take
an updraft to launch her.
CLX..hmm I'l have to look my ISP hook up is about at a stand still right now. Ahhh I got it ..CLX is a "market preform" or maybe
just a tad better, personally I'd rather short SPY and limit my
risk to a basket. I don't off hand see why CLX would make a better
short than a thousand or so others.
Also in SPY it's like almost impossable to get caught in a squezz
play if your short..unless they are big enough to
squezz all the shorts in the market at one time. ;-) It and MDY
I would not be worried with setting stop losses, and would dance in
and out like I did them short term AOL puts. I lost my long term
ones ( except for two batches ) and drew a net loss playing her,
the short term trading was mostly tit for tat, with a little more
tit but commissions and spread made it not worth while, and the
tit did not near make up for thoes long term ones that went to
"put heaven" With SPY and MDY the spread is small and commissions
are mucho cheaper, at least for me. DIA don't look too bad,
average 1/6 spread so far.
Man I wish they had a depo recpt for that SOX index.
Market / Sector timing is what I'm getting into, damm scaning
tons of stocks. Enogh troble to track the no loads and indexes,
and currency moves , the A/D average , and foreign markets,
I don't need to mess with stock issues other than a few I already
got friendly with.
Jim |
