Jon, I am a "holder" not a buyer, but I have appreciated all you have contributed over the last several months. I am similar to the poster in 11290 (sorry I don't remember the name, too old). So I should offer my 2 cents.
You seem to be looking for rational arguments (Indeed you have led a very rational argument since the stock was in the 30's). But unfortunately the market is not completely rational.
A case for buying (which I know you won't buy...) is that all the bad news is out, there cannot be any more. The projections have considered all the bad news and they are as bad as they are going to get. Nowhere to go but up; it's worth the bet.
Another point of view is the rational for the share price. If you examine the formula:
APM price = .7 (that's point seven) times WDC price
you would find it to be true over the last 6-9 months. Deviation from this formula was not much and did not last too long during this period.
So APM is rising because it is following WDC.
On a slightly different topic, I want to moderate your opinion of Mr. Crisman, if possible. As the owner of a small company, I can imagine the euphoria of latching on to a cash cow customer (WDC) and riding it for all it was worth, distracted to the point of blindness from the reality which struck in December. I imagine that Mr. Crisman, opened his mail or answered his phone on that day in December, muttered some four-letter words, and wondered what to do next. (It's happened to me.)
But the company is not dead. The future is foggy and dark. The stock price is low. Buy low, sell high.
Thanks and regards,
Dave Chanoux |
