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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: vinod Khurana who wrote (19755)1/21/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
<<"Unit growth in the PC business has remained healthy,"
PaineWebber's Winnitzki said. "Everyone knows by
now that Microsoft is getting the same royalty per copy
of Windows whether it's a $1,000 PC or $2,000 PC,"
he added.>>

I'll go this paragraph one better. Call Gateway or Micron and try to order a PC shipped to you with NO DESKTOP operating system loaded. Tell them you think their box is great and you would be happy to send them $2,000, but you would like to buy OS2 yourself and load it yourself on your new PC, because you prefer it (or tell them you would like to buy Win95 yourself and load it).

They will not ship your PC without Windows being pre-loaded. This really appears to contribute to a restraint of trade issue. I wonder if the Justice Department is looking into THIS. MSFT hasn't risen to the top by being superior technicians or even great marketers as some here claim (though they do have colorful ads and are FUDmeisters of the highest order). MSFT has a complete monopoly on the operating instructions of the #1 information processing device on the planet via a licensing agreement (thanks to IBM). Its not their marketing or the technical superiority of the product, we HAVE to buy it. Their high multiple and capitalization is NOT driven by NT Server. Windows might be the best desktop operating system ever built, but we will never know for sure because no one else even gets an opportunity to develop and sell a competing one. Bill Gates father was an attorney and he advised his son well.

One cannot predict success in the NOS market based on their success in the desktop war. I do not think they can lock up the LAN in the same way, and will have to depend more on their PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES (and to an extent, effective FUD as a delaying tactic) to determine whether they dominate the NOS market, not a restrictive license agreement.

jww

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