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Who's Lewinsky? do you mean Kaczynski? I agree the markets look bad, deflation is still a big specter. I'm wishing I followed Duke's options strategy, but my pick as a get-even deal is puts on AOL. 100-plus times estimates, 40% growth guesstimate. Discretionary, at-the-margin purchase which doesn't add much value to an experienced surfer. Compare IDX, same growth, growth rate much closer to PE ratio. Purchase saves either time money or lives, or covers the posterior of the purchaser. Has the potential to hit the odd shot over the fence. Is AOL going to grab a surprise contract to add 400,000 users in a quarter? I don't think so. They have 23 analysts following them, 20 have a buy or better. Room for upside improvement? Can another buy rec push them over 100? What if some of the opinions change to hold? Ask Brad how many times one can pound the table and say "Buy it" before people start to lose focus? AOL is going to be the Netscape of '98-'99, and IDX will be just starting to pull those investors in when we see more use of scanners for net access control and e-commerce.All this , of course, my nominally humble opinion. |
