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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Elroy who wrote (62241)7/31/2019 9:04:41 AM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 78473
 
RE: Fertilizer companies

The host on TFNN was noticing activity in MOS and BG (both reported good earnings) and made the comment that the industry is due for more consolidation. That was interesting as UAN is smaller and footprint in US. Much of the big gains this quarter were from Brazil. A lot of that Ag activity was increased by China AG tariffs in US so deliver/production moved to S. America (ie Brazil).

Fertilizer consolidation makes sense if footprint is more World Wide so there is limited impact on operations if tariffs disrupt regional production.

BG also stated that increase in revenues was also due from demand from BYND (product has yellow peas) but I would not have expected any significant revenue gains unless they had some specific investment.

Bunge's Q2 profit boosted by Beyond Meat stake

BG says its grain origination results improved in South America, more than offsetting weaker results in North America, which has suffered from rains and floods that interrupted crop movements this spring, as well as "low export demand due to the U.S.-China trade dispute."
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UAN has the largest divided (but it is a variable payment based on earnings) but the others are ok especially if the industry/cycle is ready to move higher. Perhaps the best approach is to buy a basket of these fertilizer companies as now 'value' is seen in these names.

Maybe 'value' is there as the group has lagged the market and relative prices are low. These sell at below market PE's and some are selling below BV (ie MOS).

EKS
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