| | | The sucking sound of jobs leaving China began five years ago, two years before Trump was elected.
The jobs have moved to where labor is cheaper than China, which includes, but is not limited to, Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia.
The essential part of any "trade agreement" with China is the criminal enforcement of IP theft, and the theft of IP by the Chinese government.
It's not going to be easy to achieve this because for many decades ALL communist nations have seen IP theft as an essential component of their centrally-planned economies. Russia still does the same.
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The Obama administration built a case for criminal sanctions against ZTE, which Trump gave away, and criminal sanctions against Huawei - which the US Senate is preventing Trump from giving away.
Criminal sanctions hurt the Chinese companies involved and the Chinese economy far more than they hurt US companies and the US economy.
Tariffs on exports from China are a huge tax on Americans which is worth pursuing if we can get China to enforce criminal prosecution of IP theft, but import tariffs hurt the US economy as much as it does China.
Limited economic engagement with China for decades until IP theft stops is the most likely outcome. China's leadership are very unlikely to experience a sudden 'come to Jesus moment' within the next decade.
The sanctions are effectively be against US, European and other Western firms who do business with China, and limits the global market for Chinese goods. |
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