I attach an e-mail discussion. I believe the boys are describing the same elephant ...
On 7 Aug 2019, at 2:37 PM, J wrote:
The two of you are describing the same elephant.
I am encouraged by the trade war that no side can win; the best (nastiest) war possible, the interminable ones where one or the other side must cry uncle, and do so w/ genuine enthusiasm.
On 7 Aug 2019, at 1:09 PM, G wrote:
Well, how far ur individual holdings have risen is pretty relative to the time and price at which they were purchased, so that data is not necessarily a good indicator of sector performance relative to the metal.
However, as I noted a week or two ago, with the metal at its current level relative to fairly recent times in the last years where it was at the same level, the HUI was a solid 50-60 points higher than it currently is.. i.e. circa 279.
That's a lag..
The reasons for the lag are no doubt in part due to a simple lack of interest.... the last couple of years have been brutal to investors in gold shares to say the least. so bringing back interest might well account for a lag in part, obviously.
meanwhile, with the overnite, is China saying to trump "We will crash your market", it is very easy.
Of course we know the market has been sniffing glue forever, in the first place.
On 7 Aug 2019, at 4:26 AM, H wrote:
What I said was: we do not need the so-called "gold bugs" for a major bull market - we need generalist investors to move into the sector. And I also said that they have barely begun to do so - read, there is plenty of ammunition left. This is a good thing, we want them to join in as late in the game as possible.
I don't know what you expect gold stocks to do - many are up 100% and more since their recent interim lows - I attach a random selection of stocks I hold, with the date of the low and the gain since then indicated. This is anything but "lagging". Gold is up 25% since its interim low in August 2018. These stocks have risen between 4 to 6 times as much. What exactly did you expect to happen?
On Tue, Aug 6, 2019 at 9:26 PM G wrote:
well, i could do the work and show you why I think that.
I don't agree.
But I'd rather focus on the energy to monitor what is in play and all that goes with it.
But, they are lagging. sorry.
miners are also still under the cloud of the last years and remain depressed. buyers are not stepping up in the way of the old days. you know that and I know that.
the gold bug crowd from our last 25 years on this subject got decimated. I don't think there is such a crowd any more which I think you agreed to in a prior discussion.
They are literally fucking gone and there's no new crowd sitting in the wings.
The stock buyers this time will not be them, but asset players, or at least I hope so. Steady hands.
But then again, a top was marked when the moron Jones or whatever formed his gold fund. The minute he fucking published his slide show it was over. I remember very well that day and saved the emails from it.
There's a different group, of some quality who have gone public, which again, I wonder why the fuck tards do that especially so early in the game.
But they are a different caliber I think this time around. They don't make pre arranged bets on bad paper and then take credit for it, unlike that little fuck from the past.
I'm trying to hope, at the moment, that this gold bull is a fundamental one. Meaning it is the best choice to make vs other assets.
the concept: negative rates vs gold comes to mind, now.
we're not there yet.
and I definitely do not wish to get into some kind of dogma. period.
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On Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 2:14:46 PM CDT, H wrote:
They're not lagging at all in this move. It is not really relevant to the current situation where they were previously (there are many reasons why they used to be higher on a relative basis, but suffice it to say, the same thing happened in the 1970s -
until the final three years of the bull market, when gold stocks suddenly went to new highs relative to gold).
On Tue, Aug 6, 2019 at 8:58 PM G wrote:
Well, I had been hoping as a strategy of some kind, since we are in uncharted trading territories in many ways, to simply sell half of each holding when it reaches a first bagger, then wait and see with the capital harvested therefrom.
But the golds are lagging the move.
so that is not yet a plan unless they start to catch up.
i.e................
the shit will get slaughtered in the pull back and it will be like starting from scratch. no gain, no foul, just fucking around while gold will still be higher anyway.
so, the lag is not nice.
in the 2000 run... I suppose it was in the end the same in retrospect. that trade was around 3.2 years long. but everything was a 10-20 bagger in the portfolio in the end.
so many cross currents now that were non existent then. literally a pile of shit now that was not on the table during that trade.
and everybody is a player from algo, humans, the fed and the governments.. they're all in the market.
in 2000, not nearly so, and comparatively, not at all.
so, how do we do gold this time with every mother fucking fucker right there on the other side of my trading screen.
just thinking out loud.
On Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 1:46:11 PM CDT, H wrote:
I should add: we recently had "running corrections" again in both gold and gold stocks, so it is definitely still possible that the current move will only correct after hitting the resistance at $1525-1530.
I wish BofAML would keep their yap shut - then again, this is the kind of stuff you hear shortly before corrections. Shortly before the breakout in gold, mainstream analysts reminded us that "gold is not needed now":
kitco.com
And just in case we didn't get the message, they also said "don't buy gold":
kitco.com
On Tue, Aug 6, 2019 at 7:53 PM G wrote:
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On Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 12:49:26 PM CDT, H wrote:
In order for the rally to generate the same percentage gain as in the 70s, gold would need to go to $6400 eventually. But this is super-cycle wave V, and fifth waves are usually the largest in gold (because they are driven by fear rather than greed).
I'm not posting much on AM these days, but my two most recent posts were rather timely:
Gold: A Surprise Move in Gold
Stocks: The Calm Before the Storm
I think gold may be close to some sort of pause in the near term - it needs to consolidate/ pull back to get rid of some of the speculator longs in COMEX futures.
The stock market remains extremely vulnerable - I'm looking for a bounce that fails, most likely at a lower high - but it would also work with a retest high or a marginally higher high, historical templates exist for all these possibilities. The most important technical warning signs were/are the cluster of intra-market divergences (discussed in the post), the Hindenburg Omens at the recent peak and the decline in margin debt from its high, leading to a divergence with the recent SPX high (see attached chart).
On Tue, Aug 6, 2019 at 7:25 PM G wrote:
makes great sense using the 70's as an analogy.
what would manic gold look like? $3000USD? $5000 USD or just a mere $2500 USD
HUI would be in the 700-900's with a corresponding move. Maybe higher.
Arguably this is the most important gold chart to watch.... in the annotation to the weekly chart I mention why.
 
On Tue, Aug 6, 2019 at 8:19 AM G wrote:
Looking backward when gold was last at 1460/oz, the shares of miners are deeply lagging the prior moves one should say, or could say.
I'm not sure the fire has been lit in gold shares frankly. a bit of warming, but no fire. What I do like, is no one seems to be saying much about it. Gold bugs don't seem to exist anymore either. Or maybe all of them that are still alive are over at Silicone Investor which I haven't read in years now.
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