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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (1069)8/8/2019 1:10:47 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (4) of 1504
 
Maybe more of a corporate profits slowdown I think buffered in part by corporate tax cuts... Most all recessions oil prices and flat yield curve at cycle high levels. Just don't have that this time. Now last two recessions came about a year to eighteen months after fed stopped raising rates. If you think about it the 1990 recession yield curve flattened around 8%, in 2001 around 6.25% and in 2007 flattened around 5%. Always expected 3.5% range and $4 gas prices nationwide would do the trick this time. 2% 10 year treasury and strong bank balance sheets gives lots of room for more financial engineering till this cycle really gets put to bed.. Only time mortgage lending has been this tight was 1990-95 period.. We've had very tight underwriting standards since 2008..I still believe watching homebuilder stocks the best leading indicator of all. Many hit 52 week in recent weeks approaching Jan 2018 cycle highs. No downtrends YET or signs cycle ending anytime soon. Just check any chart of the large caps like DHI,LEN,TOL, PHM they crashed for 2+ years ahead of March 2000 and December 2007 market highs, Not even semi's or transports or consumer cyclicals come close each cycle.. This time is different perhaps....lol I know so many other ways to spin things makes recession likely before election.... We shall see if fed cutting a couple more times by year end does the trick..
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