<<Misnformation was being spread unintentially, and I had just figured out the huge drops in Japanese spending being projected were not accurate when you posted.>>
I have revisited all the information available, and I'm standing by my analysis of a predicted 20-40% drop in Japanese semiconductor equipment spending in the forseeable future. The Nikkei Net article read by Chalks was a recap and said only a "minimum" of 10% decrease.
Fujitsu has announced that its spending will decrease 40%, or Y72 billion, over 12 months if the outlook does not improve. Toshiba -- which I believe the Nikkei article understands to have been planning no decreases (and this was an accurate prior statement for the company in '98)-- has just announced that it is going to push back starting a previously planned factory in Japan from 1998 to 1999, at a projected total cost of Y150 billion (a lot of this is construction and non-semi equipment cost. Toshiba also projects reducing its semi equipment outlays 60% by mid-1999. Anticipating steady spending from Toshiba at this point would be rosily optimistic -- their cash flow is in poorer shape than expected.
NEC, the strongest of the five, has been the source of hope as it has previously announced that it would not cut capital spending. However, it has now announced that it "may" push back a previously booked 300mm plant in Japan. If this is built as a 200mm plant it would cut back about Y70 billion; if it is pushed back, it will cut '98 spending estimates considerably.
Hitachi is "still formulating" its spending plans for 1998, but will "probably be down" from Y140 billion in '97.
Mitsubishi, also, has not given out any numbers, but in the past couple of days has announced that it is "probably" going to delay the planned expansion of its 256mb DRAM plant in Kochi.
The Nikkei News has not stated that the cuts would not exceed 10%. Most of the big Japanese chipmakers are still in the formulation stage, or else are keeping their cards close to their chest and only announcing cutbacks as they are booked. But if you take a neutral look at them, not trying to force them to be better or worse than they are, it is hard to imagine cuts and pushbacks for 1998 to total less than Y200 billion. Their earnings reports are miserable and they simply don't have the money. |
