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Strategies & Market Trends : Speculating in Takeover Targets
ULBI 7.040+2.6%3:59 PM EDT

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To: Labrador who wrote (5441)8/18/2019 12:37:56 PM
From: richardred  Read Replies (1) of 7239
 
Hello Labrador: On this recent decline. Yes, I have been looking at BLMN again. Insiders still have been taking advantage of selling appreciated stock option compensation. IMO the price looks attractive in this range and possible below if the market weakness continues. In spite of the meatless craze. I still think the consumer is in good shape for families to go out and have a relaxing meal, including ones with meat options. PE was pushing this company years ago when the price was much higher than now. One of the PE narratives was separating or selling off all restaurants except Outback. This leading to a higher stock price. If I remember right. The company respond delivering sequential improving earnings since then. Many times beating analyst estimates. I think this demonstrates the board got something right in their strategy to improve the company's operating results. The restaurant sector has been a attractive area for PE this year. Passive investors like Vanguard and Blackrock are the biggest players here now (30%). That's a lot of leverage if a possible bid does come in. What does a board say about a possible bid? This when they are cashing in their stock in the teens? IMO They'll most likely say personal diversification to cover their butt. IMO this also shows they would likely support a hypothetical bid as this would enhance near term shareholder value and receive shareholders kudos for the improvement they made at BLMN. So, I happen to think the company makes a good pick for value and speculative appeal. A well covered 2.5% dividend for holding if nothing develops on the acquisition front. IMO any hypothetical bid will most likely be a small premium, higher if a hypothetical bid comes in at 15 or below. The established restaurant group in general usually carries high debt and IMO therefore a lower TO premium. PE firm Vintage is still trying to buy RED Robin on a low stock price initial bid. This if they can't flush out a White Knight buyer. Bojangles & Sonic among another low TO premiums.

P.S. Food delivery to the home opens up new growth channels IMO
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