Zonagen (zona) - good buy? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Tokyo VD who wrote (1945)	1/22/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: F. Jay Abella, III	Read Replies (1) of 7041

Hi All: As some of you know, biotech valuation is my favorite subject. Thus, I have prepared, is ROUGH and for DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY, a valuation of ZONA based on my model. I received the financial data from the Nov 10-Q, and share data from AOL stock quotes. I added the $10mm from the SGP deal up front. One interesting note, ZONA's cash is of almost equal value to its products under the best case scenario, Hmmm). westergaard.com:8080/Med/Valuation/valzona9803.htm The $19.75/share figure is a maximum best case scenario number for a 12-month price target. It is based on the assumptions made by Keith Rubin on market size (I think he said 750mm somewhere), and penetration (15%). (Note - my own guess for ZONA market share would be between 0-5% due to at least Viagra and Muse and Dr. Rubin's admission that oral Vasomax is not as effective as Viagra). FJA PS - Dr. Rubin, could you please address why the ZONA white paper did not discuss the PK (ADME) of Oral Vasomax or the safety analysis which was ongoing at the time of its press release? I used to develop drugs for a major CRO and I can tell you that the white paper would have NEVER been released in that form. Thoughts?

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