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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis
AQN 5.900+0.5%3:30 PM EST
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toccodolce
To: robert b furman who wrote (443)8/27/2019 12:44:02 PM
From: Underexposed1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 914
 
USA: Update #2 on XOM

Hi Bob

Hoping to get the 70 puts assigned to me.

Sold some Septembers @ 70.00 Octobers @ 62.50 and November @ 67.50 with the original 70's in January@70.00.

If assigned my cost will be 67.82 ifit expires and 68.93 if assigned
Hahaha... this is all Greek to me. I have never been able to find an Options-For-Dummies book. Anything I have tried to read seems to think I understand options in the first place. But that is ok.... I stick with what I know.

I look at XOM today and it seems to be following your wish to head for $64.00.

Here are my new charts



I am only giving you 2 charts today.... we already know this is a bear stock... the question is how much further will it fall.

The P&F chart shows you on the verge of breaking another support at $67.50...the resistance has already been breached as it is currently $67.28 but it won't be "official" in this chart until it falls below $67.00 and closes there (could happen today,maybe)

You look at the column SMAs and there is a huge bearish divergence in the two colors...

See those arrows and numbers.... this is a rough guess as to how far a plunge or breakout will go.... Sometimes it is not too accurate but in this chart XOM seems to follow the pattern.

When a fall occurs and breaks a support, count the columns at the fattest portion.... At the start of this fall in July it was 5 columns. Multiply this by the reversal number which is 3 and you get 15... it almost made it there, stopping at 14.

Do this again at the next drop and the horizontal is 3 .... X3 = 9... again it made it to 8...pretty close.
Well we are technically breached the support and again we are looking at a 3 horizontally, getting you another 9.... if this continues true to form the next stop will be somewhere around $65.50...interesting,eh?

Now looking at the "Trigger" chart...in the top circle you see the share price is far below the 20daySMA. This is not good if you wanted to see the stock reverse its fall...but in your case you want it to fall further.

Looking at the indicators below....the Slow Sto is back in the mud again the MACD is flat with a slight neg drift.... the BBWidth is falling fast now (note the upward curl starting in the lower Bollie)

What this suggests to me is that you are not going to see a plunge to $65.50 or lower..... you will see a slow drift downward for 3-4 days as the BBwidth falls to near 4.... AT THAT POINT, there will be a major movement in share price.... if the price remains below the 20daySMA.... you will probably see the drop to $64 - $65....

if the Slow Sto and MACD start rising befor the BBWidth gets to 4 then there could be a breakout to higher prices.

You must watch this carefully ... it will happen probably by Friday or right after the weekend

UE
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