LG, bonds seem to be driving everything lately. I look at the FVX daily, and while it has positive divergences on the daily, it really looks like it could use one more low.
schrts.co
Then I look at the most clear chart out there, the OEX daily. It's got a triple bottom, is pinned below the 50-day SMA, and looks like it has completed an "e" up off the Aug. 5 lows.
schrts.co
The OEX in August also looks like a ship's anchor on the side of the boat, ready to be dropped. I think Bulkowski had a whole chapter on that <G>
The FVX and other bonds are suggesting at best, we get one new, slightly lower low. That huge bearish anchor we see everywhere on the major indexes since August 5 suggests a huge move down if it breaks down. Which is telling the truth?
When in doubt, I always trust bonds to speak the truth.
If we get another low on bonds, we may end up just going to 1240 OEX (a slightly lower low below the August lows) and then bounce bigger. That would also suggest the 200-SMA on the SPX at 2805 is tagged, or maybe 2801 for an outside double bottom.
If this happens, the NYA would likely double bottom with the June lows at 12238.40, which would line everything up for a bounce to test this week's highs from below.
What do you think, LG? |
