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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

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From: Underexposed	8/31/2019 8:33:05 PM
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USA: I thought I would do an analysis on the SPX to try to figure out where things are going. American Stocks have been going through a rollercoaster of rises and falls because of the trade problems between the USA and China. Between Trump's tweets and tariffs and China's countermeasures it is difficult to understand where this mess may end up. There here is a lot of uncertainty in the air and I thought I would take a look at the SPX from a TA point of view. Here are my charts and comments The P&F chart shows a HUGE struggle bouncing between the resistance and support... Both are pretty solid but the difference is the depth of the resistance versus the thin line of the support. If the SPX attacks the resistance and succeeds in starting to enter that red band , it will climb to 3020 -3030 and it will have a pretty strong support line as that resistance changes to support. But if it breaches the support line then it may find support around 2800 -2810 but that will be weak so a fall to 2750 is more likely. and that 2850 - 2860 support will turn into a solid resistance. There is a lot riding on whether the resistance or support is breached....currently we are attacking that resistance...so it is mildly bullish The Column SMAs are not favourable.... the distance between the blue line and red line is increasing... this is mildly bearish See that red 2680 on X axis... that is where the computer algorithm expects the stock to go. Personally I don't put much stock in this but it is a negative sentiment for me. neutral bearish The Trigger chart is interesting The upper circle shows a couple of things First of all the 20daySMA has fallen below the 50daySMA and neither SMA has shown any sign of reversing its direction mildly bearish Secondly there is some sign that there is a horizontal channel forming... that could mean this up/down scenario could continue for some time neutral The Slow Sto is not inspiring as to a breakout over that resistance....It is oscillating between 20-40 for a month now... this despite a nice rise from 2825 to 2925...If there was a breakout in the offing I would expect that the Slo Sto would break that pattern. neutral bearish The MACD is a non-issue right now as the BBWidth is falling... If the Slow Sto showed a strong rise followed by the MACD rise...That would be really bullish... but I don't see the Slow Sto as being that strong. There is no bullish/bearish feeling WRT the BBWidth... it is the action "TRIGGER". See that dashed blue line... that is the level the BBWidth has to reach before the trigger is pulled and a major movement is seen. Well the fall has slowed so it could be 3-5 days before we see a major movement...or even more. This sentiment chart is pretty straight forward... Forget about the Par Sar ... it is really meaningless at this point ... I only really trust it is in the throat of a Bollie squeeze. The Force 30 is in the mud but rising mildly bearish The RSI(30) is flat on 50 neutral The DI +/- is bearish but could be declining mildly bearish The ichimoku chart is quite interesting. In the top circle we see the SPX is within a green cloud... not as bad as being within a red cloud but still quite bearish. You can see several times where the SPX tried to breach the lower edge but was drawn back into the cloud each time... there is a weakness ahead in this cloud in 2-3 weeks... there is nothing clear what will happen then. There is thin red/blue lines within that circle... right now the red line is far above the blue line and no sign of convergence bearish The On Bal volume is neutral the CCI has climbed to neutral but it could easily fall back to bearish neutral The CMF is a new indicator addition for me and I am still figuring out how to read it. simply being green is not necessarily bullish and being in the mud is not particularly bearish.... I have found that it is the slope of the trend is what is important. Currently there is a small rise but the previous month was strongly falling.... I would rate this as neutral bearish. Conclusion what is the consensus of this analysis... Bullish.............................. Mildly Bullish.................... 1 Neutral Bullish................. Neutral............................ 4 Neutral Bearish............... 5 Mildly Bearish................. 4 Bearish........................... 2 now... after cancelling opposites we are left with Bullish.............................. Mildly Bullish.................... Neutral Bullish................. Neutral............................ 4 Neutral Bearish............... 5 Mildly Bearish................. 3 Bearish........................... 2 Well.... From this analysis I feel that the attack on the resistance will fail and the SPX will fall back yet again. Will it breach the support line??? It is too soon to speculate on that at this point. A lot of these indications are not very strong... so they can be reversed easy enough but the bearish two would not be easily changed So I would not be confident of Bullish breakout... I think it will fall back again. The politics of this trade war are so influential that making this a strong prediction is not possible.... but my feeling tends to be bearish at the moment. UE

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