Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board
Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
Kamron Daugherty, coordinator Hui Jiang, coordinator
FY 2020 Exports Forecast Up $2.5 Billion to $137.0 Billion; Imports at $129.0 BillionU.S. agricultural exports are projected to reach $137.0 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2020, up $2.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2019. This anticipated increase is primarily driven by higher exports of pork, beef, soybeans, and horticultural products. Pork exports are forecast at $6.3 billion (up $800 million from FY 2019) as a result of higher volumes and unit values, partially resulting from the repeal of Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs and an increase in global pork demand due to the African Swine Fever (ASF)epidemic. Beef and veal exports are forecast at $7.8 billion (up $300 million from FY 2019) on higher volumes and unit values. Horticultural exports are forecast up $500 million to $35.5 billion with higher sales of food preparations, beer, and mixed seasonings. Soybean exports are forecast to rise $400 million to $16.8 billion on higher volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $100 million to $5.8 billion. Grain and feed exports are unchanged. Exports to Canada and Mexico are forecast at $21.5 billion (up $400 million from FY 2019) and $19.8 billion (up $500 million), respectively. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $7.5 billion, an increase of $200 million from FY 2019, on higher expected pork sales.U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2020 are forecast at $129.0 billion, $300 million lower than FY 2019 primarily due to decreases in horticultural product imports. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to increase by $2.8 billion in FY 2020 to $8.0 billion.For FY 2019, the export forecast of $134.5 billion represents a reduction of $2.5 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to reductions in exports of corn, soybeans, and other oilseeds. The import forecast is raised by $300 million to $129.3 billion.
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