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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis
AQN 6.240+2.3%2:51 PM EST
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To: claireg who wrote (480)9/5/2019 1:13:34 PM
From: Underexposed  Read Replies (1) of 914
 
Hi Claireg

what do you think of XAR chart?

I would say , because it becomes to be out the bollinger bands, it would be time to take profits even if the charts look pretty positive
To sell or not to sell is much much more difficult than buying a stock. It was (still is) something I struggle with myself at times. So easy to fall in love with a stock, such a lover often jilts you and can be a tease :)

Let us look at the chart.



Not a bad looking chart, I wonder how long you have owned the stock?

1. Six months? In that case you have a $20ish gain or over 20%.... certainly you would want to protect that gain.

2. One month? Well if you were lucky enough to catch it at that bottom in early August you have a about a 10% gain... Protection of that gain should be a question in your mind.

3 One week? You have gained maybe 2%... are you worried about a 2% gain when there is an excellent chance to make much much more?

Here is another consideration

If you collect that 2% gain or even larger gains, do you have a better place to invest the money?

This is an important question because this stock is showing a bullish breakout now.... Lately this is not a particularly bullish climate and there is talk of recession on the horizon. Bullish stocks are not growing on trees now like a year ago... it is a lot of work to find another bullish stock. You may be leaving a good stock and put it somewhere les positive.

In the conclusion I will offer a suggestion to lessen the emotion of selling. But first I will do a complete analysis on the stock to see how bullish/bearish it is right now.

Let us look at the "Trigger" chart above.

Well already the high of that jump has lessened to a shadow....but that is not a bad thing as the body of the candle is right on the upper bollie. That is a very minor gap today... we will look at the P&F chart next but I am willing to bet it has or nearly has broken a resistance today....bullish

This is an ETF... this does not a normal stock and is heavily manipulated. I did a study on ETFs a few weeks ago to see if I wanted to invest in them....here are my conclusions

My Conclusions about ETFs

Investor dynamics only plays a part in the price of this ETF.... if the price gets out of line with the actual value of the stocks that the ETF is based on then there is a mechanism to draw the price back in line with that valuation.... I think it would be hard to PUMP an ETF because of that.

In a normal stock an outlier of share price stays above or below the bollie envelope for 3-5 days max... you can see examples of this in April and June....

In this case the ETF has already pulled back... is that bad? Hockey Pucks NO! It still looks like a positive breakout.

In the indicators the Slow Sto is over 80 with a rising MACD... bullish

The BBWidth has a solid uptick.... that itself is neither bullish nor bear,,, if it continues to rise it shows a major price movement...in this case a bullish rise.

Here is the P&F chart



Just as I thought... a recent triple top breakout over a resistance that now turns into a support at $107.... bullish

See the column SMAs in the circle... the bullish blue is diverging from the red....bullish

In the upper left you will find a price objective as per the Computer algorithm (which I take with a grain of salt) of $140.00.... Ambitious but who knows??........

Lets look at 2 more charts



THERE IS NOTHING BEARISH IN EITHER CHART.....the worst indicator is in the chart on the left...my sentiment chart....the RSI (30) is only mildly bullish

Conclusion


I can find no reason in this charts to suggest you should sell this ETF. It is just starting a major breakout. To sell it now would cause you to want to chase it later on.

I personally would not be worried about this stock at all.... but if you are then I would set a Limit Stop Loss with something like a trigger point 5% behind the current price and a limit of another 3% lower... and then trail it up as the price rises... Using a limit stop Loss likes this takes the emotion out of a sale...

But this ETF looks fine to me.

UE
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