Hello C2, updating Message 32310498
This night I closed the September short-Put positions, to book the difference as deserved profit, and to save capacity for whatever comes next. I realise there are only a few days remaining on the term of the options, but did not like the pre-Saudi strike trajectory of PMs. I am not sure of what is next. PMs seem to be correcting, and TLT not yet done w/ correction.
Per rejuvenated discipline, shall need to do something, anything, about November and onward, but am shy w/r to October
Message 32306544
SIL Oct 18 '19 Put 31 @ 1.45 currently in negative position but let us give time-decay a proper chance to do wet work
GDXJ Oct 18 '19 Put 40 @ 1.62 ditto
Message 32287667
SIL Sept 20 '19 Put 29 @ 1.25 closed at 0.50, good-enough for now
GDXJ Sept 20 '19 Put 38 @ 1.42 closed at 1.11, fight another day, per Armstrong
FNV Sept 20 '19 Put 90 @ 3.65 closed at 1.03, very nice, waiting to reload
Re <<I don’t believe that there will be military action against Iran, and the POG reflects that.
... Eventually, in a year or so, to coincide with US elections, Iran will do something spectacular either in SA or the US, or both, that will ignite a fuse that will set off a major conflagration.>>
Whether the Yemen rebels or Iranian little-sand-men (ala Russian little-green-men) did 'it' is perhaps a needlessly fine distinction, but I do not believe there would be immediate kinetic hot war of the shock & awe sort. Yes, the trending seems to be that way, and should it be so, ought to be gold-supportive.
I ordinarily would doubt SArabia's inclination to voluntarily get into hot wars. The kingdom may be too weak internally to risk a big war, and the royal family may not have the tummy to risk the unknowable. Yes, the prince is not predictable. Am still not sure what the Yemen adventure is all about.
I would find it odd should the Trump decides to throw the dice on any large undertaking against Iran. He did not buy the Bolton pitch. OTOH he did hire Bolton, but that may just be stratagem. Hard to tell, and harder to say.
I feel October may be the month to put on more trades positioned for end-2019 and Q1-2020. |
