| | | e-mail tray this day
On 17 Sep 2019, at 7:22 AM, J wrote:
And we keep it fun, so that as we have fun, we would naturally do it well to maintain state of fun, and if so, then rewarding, pecuniarily as well as psychically
Agree that we must make the trade count, meaning move the needle, pin it in the red-zone, quivering, and w/ conviction, but slowly slowly aggregate the full wallop position
On 17 Sep 2019, at 3:56 AM, G wrote:
btw.. this may be for some of us the last great or bust, positional trade we will ever do going forward.
getting it right would be a great way to end nearly 30 years of conversation at this point. yes! It has been that long.
When it comes to gold at least, we have been there for all of it since the great gold bear ended at 252/oz london fix. Literally we were there.
HB I think was there for 1987. My first stock as a trader I did not know I would be was 1992 or thereabouts. I didn't have anything better to do at the time LOL. wtf?
Here we are now.
Lettuce us NOT be our youthful selves of back then.
Lettuce us be wise. no greed, no fear. Just the best wisdom we can bring to the table. That includes any one left who do not happen to be a part of this conversation.
Games tables in HK don't apply for example. They've always been scalps, not strategies. Excluded really from these thoughts. Including all the distractions such thinking brings to the main event.
Anyone want to agree to this idea of a discipline at this moment?
I remind you all, Gold hasn't even made a new all time high in USD, so far.
And shares.... no matter what is said, are not yet bought. They are not per se sold, but they are not bought. a difference from the two last bull runs I was intimately familiar with. Very intimate. charts or no charts comparative performance, thus far.. is a BS measure. They are not bought yet. but the sold sign is at the moment not hanging in front of their company HQ's. a good thing.
COTS seem to say now that the quick money hedge specs have moved on for now.
can we fly a bit? second class is fine. i'm willing to wait for first class and a foot/dick massage.
please add thoughts. STEVE stop being shy. your a smart guy and you know numbers. speak up man!!!!!!! <g:
On 17 Sep 2019, at 3:12 AM, G wrote:
well, we can all think for sure w/o looking silly, that what we have in the world is far bigger than even bretton woods or getting off the gold standard as a theme for gold. and by the way at 8k gold, the HUI would surely be at 1600-2500 depending on how gold stocks get valued along the way.
however..........................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
there are still gold bugs who haven't killed themselves yet sitting on their portfolios from back in the heady days of the run from 1999/2000 who bet it all and got killed if they haven't sold their shares by now. they suffered a great depression in fact and got locked in.
this 8k number in that light I cannot take for granted at all let alone a 21k number.
we need to be on guard friends! but w/o making decisions based on fear...............or greed. 8k is a greedy number at this stage.
the planet of bastards running the ship have not yet lost much control. we shall see. there are no legislatures that exist anymore to hold them back. they have free reign to rule and at any cost now.. mostly to us.
be wary.
On 17 Sep 2019, at 1:46 AM, H wrote:
Attached is a chart comparing the 1970's mid-cycle bear market to the 2011-2015 mid-cycle bear market up to the eventual turning point. The current bull market is so far mimicking the 70's bull market, only it is stretched in terms of time by a factor of 2.1. The reason for this is that the gold price was fixed prior to 1971, and the bull market that started after the fixed price regime ended was compressed time-wise as a result. If you look at the attached chart of gold stocks from 1958 to 1972, there was a huge bull market from '58 to '68. as gold stocks anticipated the failure of Bretton Woods.
Assuming that the analogous behavior continues, we should expect roughly an 8x increase from the mid-cycle bear market low.
On Mon, Sep 16, 2019 at 11:05 AM G wrote:
the Gold bull of the 80's was a 20x move from 40USD to 800USD as the crow flies.
the Gold bull starting in 2000 went from 252 to 1800 or so..... an 8x move.
if this is a Gold bull move starting at 1050..... what is the x factor? 8000USD, 21000USD ?? or none of the above at all. |
|
