Wow! Yes, I did something similar a few weeks back. I went to 1/3 cash and left the other 2/3 in short dated bonds. So I continue to be positioned for a crash. I think with the impeachment process and Ukraine and the election season picking up steam, it's going to roil markets. The Fed can keep the party going until the election, but we don't know if they will or not. So much safer to be in cash and short dated bonds. As to Warren, I believe she will win the nomination. Biden is toast. He never had Obama's support and this Ukraine thing will take him out as collateral damage. I think that suits the Dems fine, because I think the DNC wants Warren. From a strategy perspective, Warren draws the crowds and she's right down the line supportive of what the current Democratic, progressive, Socialist core base wants. So the DNC is going to give it to them.
Now, I don't know if she can beat Trump, though. My sense is that there is a very large and silent majority out there. The center in this country doesn't like Trump, but they dislike Socialists even more. Frankly, the radical left scares the center in this country. As a Cuban, I see many similarities between their policies and Castro's and Chavez's. Those policies didn't work for Cuba and Venezuela and they won't work for Americans. One thing I learned about Socialism is that the only people it really benefits is the top 1% and the connected. It's sad, but true. Socialism only ever looks good in the propaganda, but never in reality.
Anyway, even if Warren loses to Trump next year, never fear. I believe the next President after Trump will be a Socialist. So the Democrats are going to get exactly what they want either next year or 5 years from now. Then there will be no going back. We'll all survive, but this country will change radically and in a lot of ways that Americans simply aren't used to. Americans really don't understand what true Totalitarianism is, but they'll find out soon enough.
Anyway, best of luck on the trading over the coming year. I think we're in the 9th inning of whatever this game is. So the next year will be incredibly interesting and we may see some really good investing/trading opportunities. Let me know when you deploy that cash. I'll post here when I deploy my own cash again as well. Good luck out there! |
