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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: seth thomas who wrote (1471)	1/22/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) of 3033

Vantive did 11 SFA-only deals. This is almost odd in that VNTV's competitive advantage and what it markets itself on is integration of modules. That is their thing. Sure shows that they have a very credible SFA product though. The market for CIS is clearly re-accelerating. VNTV executed well in 1997. They are projecting growth in excess of 50% in 1998 with upside from SFA. They said a year ago that their target was 70% growth for the year (coming off a somewhat of a bubble in 1996) and they ended up doing 83%. 50% probably means more like 60-65% in 1998. Moreover, they had sales rep headcount problems this year and expect to grow this number 80-100% in 1998 as they budget for 1999. It looks more likely than not that revenues grow at 50% or more compounded over the next few years. Margins should trend upward again, albeit only marginally. $.80 now looks like it has some upside. I think the stock goes to $40 in the near-term. This sure feels a lot like April when the stock went from high 'teens to the $30's. The current multiple discounts a 30% grower, IMO. Load the boat.

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