John, I happen to agree with your basic points. However, I would wait until the SHM to see what is up.
As far as ORCL, I am not sure that this company will ever regain its position. Sybs just got hit, imfx just got hit, orcl just got hit... Where is the revenue growth going to come from to support the high PE. I think ORCL is an excellent company, but they are in an industry that has slowing growth, and tremendous price pressure from MSFT. While ORCL8 is an excellent product, who is to say that MSFT will not introduce an object oriented DB and hit that market as well.
On the positive side, I have heard great things about ORCLs OLAP tools and I like their strategy of trying to customize their product suites for vertical markets.
However, when you talk about dead money, I think ORCL is in the same boat as TPRO and is probably worse off. I don't think there is any announcement that ORCL could make that would fix its stock price over the next 6 months, while TPRO has a lot of potential announcements that could make its price fly.
Clearly, TPRO is a risky investment. However, I think that it is unfair to criticize the company as harshly as some have on this thread. I think people got whipped up over the hype. I for one will be happy if the stock hits 12 at some point this year. If this happens, I will be up way more than 100%. Talk of 35 or 40, while not impossible, seems incredibly naive to me.
Best wishes,
Dan
PS- John, you were the one who turned me on to this stock so I think that this dialog is rather funny. |
