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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

AQN 5.910

-1.3%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Underexposed who wrote (585)	10/7/2019 12:32:05 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 914

Good Morning UE, USA : I would like to propose a stock for the USA portfolio. This stock is a very hard stock to own. ALMOST 95% OF THE STOCK IS HELD BY INSTITUTIONS! This small company has entered into an acquisition, now almost a year ago. They bought a company with larger revenue, larger cash balances ,and higher margins. This opportunity became available when the CIFIUS committee put a NO! decision on allowing a Chinese hedge fund from buying up a company named XCERRA. When that happened Cohu was able to start purchase discussions. Now a year later many repositioning of manufacturing facilities have been accomplished at a large expense. Severance packages have been paid. The cost savings that were estimated to be 40 million over 24 months have been accelerated to now being accomplished in just 12 months - effective Q1 2020. Literally it has been dead money and a huge percentage decline on the price of the stock since David bought Goliath. Full disclosure - I've had a large position in this company since I first bought its stock in 1978. I've been in and out of it completely 3 times during those years. It now represents my largest position and longest as well. Over those many years Cohu has been debt free and has rolled up the several different type of test handlers made on a global basis. With this last and biggest acquisition Cohu has rolled up the back end testing handling of chips on a global scale. It is fairly accurate to say the every semi chip made goes through a 100% test in the back end of semi manufacturers. That meqans every chip gets handled by a Cohu test handler, Test handlers come in three categories The various divisions of Cohu currently have the #1 market share in each sector: 1) Pick and place - Delta Division 2) Gravity feed - Rasco Division 3) Turret - Ismeca division. The addition of XCERRA brings the number 2 maker of gravity test handlers (and the largest installed owner base of gravity test handlers in the world). Xcerra also brings printed circuit board testing and inspection systems. The combined company now has revenue that is more than half funded by the sale of re-occurring sales of consumables and parts that wear out during the 24/7/365 utilization of these handlers. This provides very stable revenue which has exceptional margins in the mid 60 percentile. I'm still expecting another quarter where the kitchen sink will be thrown in (Q4 2019). It is my opinion that Cohu's price has been the subject of price manipulation. I think the 17 million shares exchanged with the Xcerra stock holders has been the subject of accumulation by the overwhelming institutional ownership of Cohu's stock prior to the now year ago acquisition. The sale of new test handler systems has been a laggard - when it was expected to be an H2 2019 development. Both Cohu and XCERRA were well positioned for the introduction of both the infrastructure of 5G (XCERRAS expertise and the chips made for the new 5G handsets - Cohu's expertise). I believe 5G handsets are just around the corner, while both T and VZN are in an accelerated build out of 5G infrastructure now, Similar infrastructure build outs are occurring on a global basis. The price action I had expected was more of down to sideways. I've been pleasantly surprised with the recent upward reversal. I'm talking my book here, but I've expected a resumption of Cohu's profitability in 2020. Hopefully this is a sign of quicker business activity. That being said the price action of very recent is encouraging. The % BB width and Macd look to be classic UE action. To accomplish the acquisition Cohu offered 17 million new shares of Cohu and took on 350 million in debt - which is a "First for Cohu". In my way of thinking - it shows how valuable the combination of these companies is and will be. Hoping to have your analysis on this little known stock. A stock that has a huge market opportunity within the semiconductor manufacturing business. They also pay a 24 cent annual dividend with four 6 cent quarterly dividends. stockcharts.com Bob

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