Pretty tough market environment:
Clinton- The only woman he seems to be able to keep his pants on around is Hillary. Negative for pushing through Fast Track and IMF Funding legislation = increased uncertainty about Asia and other fiscal matters to be addressed by Gov't. This scandal may be the straw that broke the philanderer's back, or has he gone to the well one too many times?, so to speak.
Asia- Of course, but does anyone really know what it will be like as the other shoe drops during the coming quarters? Will China devalue, or hold? The Asian issue is real, and it is not even close to being any clearer as to what it will mean for the global economy story down the road. More uncertainty.
Iraq- Tricky, but another good, old-fashioned ass whoopin' for Saddam & Co. may be just what the Dr. orders so that slick Willy can divert attention from his latest episode of, "I swear that I didn't have sex with that woman". But in the short term, another market negative due to the uncertainty factor.
My best take on this one for now is: DOWN to low 90's and beyond. Overall healthy, as the stock backs down below 90, then bases, and then fills as it makes its next move upward during
the second half of this year.
Time for this market and its generals, like IBM, to take a well-deserved break. We don't want a tulip bulb or Nikkei type scenario to develop here. Never in the history of the Dow, had the market posted gains of over 20% for three years in a row, and then it did in 95 through 97. This year is a trading range market and probably not a bear, but looking for market leaders like IBM to do anything in the face of its own fundamental slowdown and so much market uncertainty may be too much to ask in the near term.
Short term trade down to low 90's from here. And it will all workout fine after that for the buy and hold crowd.
Best of Luck To All,
Michael |
