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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: koan who wrote (420739)10/16/2019 12:30:42 PM
From: cosmicforce  Read Replies (1) of 540808
 
<she proved it worked last time>

You are using a very weak meaning of 'proof' here. Math models are JUST models. So what? Her model worked before.

By means of analogy, I live on a planet where we never encountered melting water. We build everything out of ice, but suddenly we have a period of warming over 0 degC. Not one day but weeks on end. Our model worked - until it didn't.

The maths are even worse for political models especially when we have the non-linear aspects of 'crowd mechanics' perturbed by Russian troll-farms. When I studied numerical analysis - there were some words of wisdom from my instructor.

Interpolation almost always works in real and continuous systems whereas extrapolation almost never works.
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