President Trump appears likely to win reelection next year, according to three different economic models Moody’s Analytics uses to measure presidential contests.
Moody’s modeling, which has only missed on one presidential election since 1980, found that Trump, who won by a 304-227 margin in the Electoral College in 2016, could easily surpass those results in 2020.
The three different models showed Trump winning either 289, 332 or 351 votes in the Electoral College over his eventual opponent. The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper, told CNBC. “It’s about turnout.”
Of the three models, Trump performs best under the “pocketbook” measure, which gauges how people feel about their finances.
“Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The report shows that high turnout would favor the Democrats and projects a narrow Democratic victory if there is historic Democratic turnout.
The report is likely to be welcome news to Trump’s campaign, which has sought to leverage on a strong economy to try to offset an array of other issues, including the House’s growing impeachment investigation.
“Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much?” Trump tweeted last week.
To help bolster its chances, the Trump campaign has also emerged as a fundraising juggernaut, announcing Tuesday that its joint fundraising committees and the Republican National Committee hauled in a combined total of $125.7 million in the year’s third quarter.
Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were shown to be correct for each presidential election, except for 2016 when it predicted a narrow victory for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. |
