>>ASML expects 60% of new units to be DUV?>>
From previous discussions on this thread, I was under impression that even with reuse of existing i-line equipment, DUV:I-line ratio for new orders will be below 1. I thought it was estimated around .3 for 1997. 60% DUV translates into DUV:I-line ratio of 3:2 for new orders and looks high. If true though, good news for CYMI.
Also found in the referenced article:
>>By the end of 1997, ASML still had to deliver 158 wafer
steppers, from 94 at the end of 1996, while new orders rose to
275 in 1997, from 126 in the previous year.>>
(If I read this correctly, ASMLF shipped 94+275-158 = 211 steppers in 1997 and have orders for 157 going into 1998. With stated capacity for 350 units, ASMLF is less than 50% booked for 1998).
I'd prorated these data towards overall DUV market, assuming that ASMLF has 25-30% of the DUV market, and that 60% of DUV orders in the backlog as of end of the year is a representative number. Under these assumptions, DUV makers may have accumulated orders for 310-370 DUV machines by the beginning of the year. Their laser inventory on hand is no more than 200 units (about 160 as of 3Q + 130 expected CYMI production 4Q; minus number of DUV steppers produced in 4Q97 the latter thould be at least 90 given 360 yearly production, probably more).
If so, CYMI should have received orders for at least 110-170 additional lasers in 4Q.
Yakov |
