Hi C2,
(1) Re this Message 32381424
(1-i) Thank you for the heads-up. Feel it is still way too early for any definitive dollar collapse. The Euro should collapse first, and if so, the dollar must go up.
(1-ii) Given Dollar might not yet be ready for down, then T-bills should still trend towards ZIRP, especially if the EU keep going gungho for NIRP. I really cannot fathom what happens once we have pervasive NIRP following generalised ZIRP.
Following up to this Message 32378413 daisy chain - and I hope very much that you and the rest of the thread do not mind that I am using all as counterparty to these update posts - they are not meant as anything other than a chance to calibrate my pondering in no-perso's land, and not anything remotely boastful because there is nothing to boast about. I simply feel that the journey we are all on must not be done alone
(2) Just executed a trade, am not sure why, but not just for something to do:
Shorted TLT November 15th '19 Put strike 136.50 @ $1.17
(2-i) Continuing to believe the FED shall drop rates, unable or unwilling just yet to twist. The 1-3-years finance.yahoo.com yields essentially the same as the 3-y-years finance.yahoo.com , the 7-10-years finance.yahoo.com , and as the 20-years finance.yahoo.com
(2-ii) IOW, money is not money and time value of money is effectively negative considering the Not-QE and the hoped for MMT
(2-iii) Can the FED and market-makers in concert twist the yield curve to something rational, with the short rate at between 0-2% and long rate at 2-4%? They can try Russian roulette w/ automatic pistol or, better, shotgun.
(3) Entire tradable order of battle looks so
(3-i) Short ALGN finance.yahoo.com Nov 15th Put strike 210 @ 10.49
(3-ii) Short GDXJ finance.yahoo.com Nov 15th Put strike 37 @ 1.27
(3-iii) Short GLD finance.yahoo.com Nov 15th Put strike 139 @ 1.21
(3-iv) Short SIL finance.yahoo.com Nov 15th Put strike 28 @ 0.56
(3-v) Short TLT finance.yahoo.com Nov 15th Put strike 136.50 @ 1.16
(3-vi) Short TLT Dec 20th Put strike 138 @ 2.35
(3-vii) Long QQQ finance.yahoo.com Dec 20th Put strike 160 @ 0.45
(3-viii) Short SPY finance.yahoo.com Dec 20th Put strike 298 @ 6.43
(3-ix) Long (forever) HKEX finance.yahoo.com at all sorts of prices and taking in dividends (meaning position at loss state) at dividend adjusted cost basis of HK$ 282 (ouch)
(3-x) Long Hang Seng Bank finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 169.90
(3-xi) Long China Mobile finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 66.45
(3-xii) Long paper gold since forever, cost basis ~$1,337 per troy ounce
Most of the above are under water, and so must wait for inexorable time-decay to save the quarter.
(4) Overall the micro looks so ...
Metals @ 19% (86:14 physical:paper)
Cash @ 13%
Equity @ 8%
RE @ 60%
Debt @ -0-
(5) Am generally figuring on DUGUSUBU (dollar up, gold up, stocks up, bonds up) everything up, until we run of juice, then fume, then am unsure what happens.
(5-i) Re what happens, many years ago when the coconut was 11, this Message 30467207 conversation took place (love the search functionality)
(5-ii) The Jack (9) has experienced tallying losses, on his imaginary long positions in GEO finance.yahoo.com the publicly traded prison just outlawed by California, and on MCD finance.yahoo.com . He decided to cut loss on GEO, maintain MCD, and added KL finance.yahoo.com. He gets to keep net gain sweep into his piggy bank.
Last night he asked me, "Dada, what are all those symbols?"
"What symbols?"
"PE and EPS. And when do they pay dividends?"
Interesting.
We also have weekend battles over networked Call of Duty Mobile callofduty.com and make sure we play on the same team, either one of us have the other's back at all times, but especially when he is piloting a drone and do not have weapons at ready.
(5-iii) We are all in the Call of Duty game, ready or not, 3, 2 ...
Observation, the Battle Royale scenarios are hard to play, because after death of one's character, there is no respawning - you only get to watch others continue to duke it out from their eyes, until only one left
(5-iv) I can no longer dialogue w/ the Coconut (15) on many subjects - her latest be Mesoamerican history. While I can still engage on "why and how do empires fall", but forget about anything re literature and art and history and biology and chemistry. The coconut has moved on to the next level in her fields of interest. |
