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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 157.09-1.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Wes who wrote (4554)1/23/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
I've been watching this cycle for a long time. Every time the train enters a tunnel, many of the passengers think it's a hole and just a matter of time until it derails completely. Every time it comes out of a tunnel, many think they've seen darkness for the last time.

We are in the down period of a cycle. It's going to head back up in the next year or two just the way an exhale is followed by an inhale -- that is, unless there is some deep overall global catastrophe, like a major war or a climactic change, that really kills the economy.

I don't think we've bottomed yet, and the currency difficulties in Asia are not yet resolved. The consensus of currency traders (these are only educated guesses) is that the situation will stabilize sometime in April-June, and that most Asian currencies will trade above current levels by the end of the year. I'd speculate that we'll see enough confidence by the end of 1998 to be hearing new semi equipment orders and the semi equipment sector will start climbing in earnest, to levels at least 50% higher than 1997 at some point in 1999 or so.

If I had a 14-year-old with a college trust, I'd put his money into a broad range of semi equipment shares, virtually certain that they'd double by the time the money was needed. The world is going to be screaming for semiconductors in a year or two.
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