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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13354)1/23/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
George: If global authorities are going to reflate, it will be to counteract a slow down in worldwide economic activity, thus we will first have slight defalation, and thus a possibility of lower interest rates. Tne unknowns are how successful will the central bankers be in dosing the rflation effort to keep the system from running into a major inflationary step thereafter. I do not know that, but so far, our own CB has been quite good at controlling the money and interest side (the monetary side) of the equation. If the fiscal side does not get out of hand, by the middle of the year we might indeed be once again in a "goldilock" scenario starting with interest rates lower than right now (but George, remember that the turnips call for a blip up in interest rates up right here to just under 6% that will precipitate the current decline), or around 5.5%. That together with lower equity prices due to "earning warnings" in the next few months, will set the stage for the resumption in the bull market the turnips are seeing later this year.

Zeev
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