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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA

AMD 214.87

-0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: neolib who wrote (33646)

10/30/2019 3:15:20 PM

From: Vattila

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What do you think of Mosesmann's numbers into 2021? Has he gone hyperbolic? Or are his numbers still within the realms of likelihood? And if so, how likely in your view? Feel free to refer to my scenarios for context. What do you think AMD's longterm destiny is? Forever the underdog?

AMD longterm prospects (5-10 years)	Market cap.	Stock price	Likelihood
Pessimistic: Fades away, overtaken by competitors	<$20B	<$20	10%
Precarious: Stays an underdog, fighting at current levels	$20B-40B	$20-40	20%
Stable: Respected competitor, solid profitability and market share	$40B-100B	$40-100	40%
Optimistic: Matches Nvidia size business, best-in-class profitable niches	$100B-200B	$100-200	20%
Pie-in-the-sky: Overtakes competitors, exclusive innovation/markets	$200B+	$200+	10%

What do you think Lisa Su is aiming for? To be a Nvidia size competitor? Or does she think that is unrealistic and hence aims lower? It would be interesting to know her true ambition.

PS. Mosesmann: Our new price target for AMD is $52, up from $42

4Q2019 - $2.10B $0.30

1Q2020 - $1.95B $0.23
2Q2020 - $2.20B $0.31
3Q2020 - $2.59B $0.48
4Q2020 - $2.86B $0.58

1Q2021 - $2.38B $0.41
2Q2021 - $2.80B $0.60
3Q2021 - $3.09B $0.72
4Q2021 - $3.53B $0.88

2019 - $6.70B $0.62
2020 - $9.60B $1.60
2021 - $11.80B $2.62

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