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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Vattila who wrote (33645)10/30/2019 3:52:04 PM
From: Pravin KamdarRead Replies (1) of 73517
 
You mentioned that you think "we will max out somewhere in your "stable" range around Q3 next year". I presume you then think AMD will fall back. Do you think Intel will come back at that point and put AMD back in my "precarious" or "pessimistic" scenario? Or do you simply find it hard to picture and predict AMD's future beyond that point?

A little of both.

I think around Q3, the anticipation of the new console tail wind will be in full force -- along with speculation and leaks about Zen3 and Milan. High performing RDNA GPUs and next gen APUs should be kicking in.

But, around this time, Intel will be launching a 10nm+ Xe discrete graphics card. nVidia will be releasing their next gen Samsung 7nm Ampere graphics cards. Intel may also be pulling a high core rabbit out of their hat with 10nm Ice Lake Xeon (since high core Xeon will not require high frequency).

And, if you agree that the market looks out about 6 months ahead, there could be a top in Q1 of next year. AMD has seen the stars aligning in a way that could not have been expected. Not one, but two Empires will attempt to strike back. That's not to say that they will be successful in stemming AMD's tide, but I want to consider the most risky scenario -- since my balls are on the line.

Then, there are macro things like the election and an overdue recession.

Like I always say -- it's a crap shoot. You roll the dice, you take your chances.

Pravin
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