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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA
AMD 214.30-0.3%3:23 PM EST
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To: Vattila who wrote (33652)10/30/2019 6:25:19 PM
From: neolibRead Replies (1) of 73123
 
I think through Q2 maybe Q3'20 his numbers are OK, but into late '20 and into '21 I think the competitive landscape starts to change radically.

Both Nvidia and Intel are still pushing newer features than AMD can offer in their current 7nm products, and both Nvidia and Intel currently lag AMD on process tech. That situation will be very different mid-20. Nvidia will be out with 7nm GPUs, while Intel will have 10nm server too. Hardware raytracing will be well supported by games then, and the newer 7nm Nvidia GPUs will likely be flogging that for all its worth. Intel will be pushing DLboost, Optane and AVX-512 on the 10nm Xeons, all points AMD can't match. AMD won't be competitive in data center GPUs, and the adoption time there given software will leave Intel on a more or less even field with AMD in that segment. Intel will be pushing their proprietary AI/ML designs, and integrating that with Xeons. They already have a software environment they are pushing for seamless development across all their CPU/GPU/AI/ML hardware.

If AMD could get to 5nm in Q3/Q4'20 that would be awesome. But they won't. HiSilicon, Apple, MediaTek, and Samsung will likely there late next year, but not AMD.

And of course there are the macro/market issues. But I HOPE AMD makes it north of $40 between now and say end of Q1'20. I'd be happy to reevaluate at that point.
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