Thanks for all the good points. I am not going to try to dispute them all or convert you to my rosy outlook — I think it is good to have a range of views and levels of caution here.
> AMD needs to demonstrate that they can build a sustained biz in any of their segments.
Agree very much. This is what I had in mind when I called the current scenario "precarious" and my most likely longterm scenario "stable". Of course, there will always be competitive ups and downs, but in my stable scenario the swings are not in and out of profitability. In this scenario Intel and Nvidia may come back strongly, but it will not take AMD into the red. In the stable scenario, AMD has a product and IP portfolio, customer base, partnerships, market share, manufacturing options and roadmap, all strong enough to withstand competitive responses.
I think this looks doable now.
| AMD longterm prospects (5-10 years) |
| Market cap. | Stock price | Likelihood | | Pessimistic: Fades away, overtaken by competitors |
| <$20B | <$20 | 10% | | Precarious: Stays an underdog, fighting at current levels |
| $20B-40B | $20-40 | 20% | | Stable: Respected competitor, solid profitability and market share |
| $40B-100B | $40-100 | 40% | | Optimistic: Matches Nvidia size business, best-in-class profitable niches |
| $100B-200B | $100-200 | 20% | | Pie-in-the-sky: Overtakes competitors, exclusive innovation/markets |
| $200B+ | $200+ | 10% |
|
