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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (1481)	1/23/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: Clam Clam	of 3033

Investor psychology can change. VNTV is a solid growth-at-a-price investment with excellent risk/reward. Most of the analysts out there are momentum analysts or i-banking colored. Morgan Stanley is an example of the latter keeping Scopus as Outperform and Vantive neutral. Lehman Brothers is a classic example of the former. Skiba wrote today "While (VNTV) is trading at only 34x our 1998 EPS of $.80, it lacks a catalyst to move it dramatically higher over the next several quarters." If that isn't momentum-based analysis, I don't know what is. I guess that means he would be willing to buy VNTV at 50 or 60 or 90x earnings if VNTV had showed an extra penny of EPS. I remain confident that VNTV will give me a good return in 1998 from my late 1997 purchase. I was cautious on the valuation until November. I play risk/reward and diversify so finding 10 stocks with VNTV characteristics is fine with me. If VNTV doesn't perform for another quarter or two, so be it but Vantive is creating value and if they keep it up, that will eventually be rewarded.

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