It's been many years, but IMGN previously did a similar layoff. They built back up on the strength of new partnerships and drugs. We'll know a lot more after ASH, perhaps IMGN632 could have a faster path to approval than IMGN853 if results are that positive. I certainly believe IMGN853 should be approved, and a partnership could come at any time, but it's potential isn't as great as when it was believed to benefit patients with less platinum resistance. What's yet to really be tested is other cancers where platinum resistance is a consideration.
If in fact ASH is that positive, I believe $13 is just resistance, nothing that the stock can't blow through with good news. A ROW partnership for IMGN853 might come with the partner taking an equity interest in the company, if it did, I believe the price the partner agreed to pay would set up a new trading range immediately. Had the Phase 3 been successful, such a partnership could have brought in billions, at this point I still believe hundreds of millions should still be possible, depending on how the partnership is structured.
If you look at SGEN, it doesn't take much more than one drug that's approved and largely owned by the company to gain a double digit billion dollar market cap. As drugs go, IMGN's tech in Kadcyla is every bit as successful as SGEN's conjugates, IMGN632 is working where SGEN's conjugate failed. SGEN's latest success was not a conjugate, but rather something they acquired and ironically it's success is due to it's effectiveness with Kadcyla, IMGN's drug, but one which they monetized and get nothing further from.
I hate to say we're at least a few years from such success, but approvals are a key unless we gain tremendous new partnerships, or a buyout at a substantially higher price.
Gary |
