Good point.
I was just reading about Moderna's CMV vaccine from their R&D day. They do LNP mRNA vaccines, and estimated a 90% gross margin. Gardasil HPV vaccine ~$450, say $500 for CMV vaccine. That would mean cost of $50 for $500 sale.
Let's assume the same for ShinglesCide: $50 cost of production and $500 per dose (one course) of cream.
Theracour charges $65, plus takes 15% of $500 = $75. That is only $90/$450 = 20% of GP, not 60%.
If gross margin is only 30%, then Theracour gets all of it: cost=.7*$500=$350, TC gets 30%=$105, plus they get 15%*500=$45.
So, yeah, we need to know the expected gross margin for each dose to figure out how much if any will be left for NNVC.
I think most drugs have GM of 50-90% (2 to 10x markup).
Point is that if GM is 30%, NNVC gets 0, and Theracour all 30% of sales that is profit.
At 50% GM, NNVC gets 20% of sales that is profit, and TC 30% of sales that is profit.
At 70% GM, NNVC gets 46% of sales that is profit, and TC 24% of sales that is profit.
At 90% GM, NNVC gets 72% of sales that is profit, and TC 18% of sales that is profit.
Let's hope the expected costs of production are low and price is high (GM is high), so NNVC can reap most of the rewards. |
