Here's the analysis: (I'll be the first to admit, this was quick and dirty...the reader must decide its predictive usefulness:
10 Top Drug Companies: GILD, CELG, BIIB, AMGN, ABBV, ABT, MRK, JNJ, LLY, BMY
I took the following 2018 metrics from Yahoo! Finance:
- Revenues
- COGS (cost of goods sold)
- R&D expenses
- EBITDA (profits before taxes, etc.)
- Net profits
I subtracted from pre-tax earnings:
- 30% on COGS and R&D (TheraCour markup)
- 15% of revenues (TheraCour royalty)
- Note: No additional charges for NNVC/TheraCour licensing
From this I calculated the new pre-tax earnings
Using the same tax rate I calculated after-tax earnings
I calculated the profit reduction % for each company
(due to my simplistic method, it was the same ratio for pre- and post-tax, shown below)
| Ticker | % Reduction in Earnings | | GILD | 60.94% | | CELG | 69.03% | | BIIB | 46.96% | | AMGN | 54.07% | | ABBV | 163.78% | | ABT | 130.26% | | MRK | 140.64% | | JNJ | 92.29% | | LLY | 126.91% | | BMY | 106.83% |
Half do not make a profit.
Please feel free to make your own spreadsheet and question my assumptions.
My assessment: we're screwed (with 99.99% confidence).
Dropbox link to my spreadsheet: |
