Updating Message 32403721
(1) Opened positions on oil
Short USO finance.yahoo.com December 20th Put strike 11.50 @ 0.40
am premised on ...
- the shale 'revolution' is as innovative as WeWork this, Beyond Meat that, and Impossible anything else, all artefacts of Central Banking creativities around the planet - burning money, and natural organic production decreases, and bankruptcies, and and and shall surface the team USA alt-energy independence over the intermediate term, necessitating re-engagement w/ the Middle East
- the ME situation is trending towards less and not more stabilities
- that 'H' might be correct n discussion, per "I think the sheikhs at best have some idea of where the price of oil is going in the short term, but not beyond that. And near to medium term it seems actually likely that it will strengthen rather than weaken. While demand growth is weak, it seems the market has a supply problem. This is evident in the fact that crude oil futures stubbornly remain in backwardation. In the past two years US supply has continued to grow, but elsewhere a lot of supply has disappeared - Venezuela, Iran, Mexico... my guess is that this is a much bigger problem than is generally assumed (and it is compounding, because their output it missing day after day).
As an aside to this, I know someone in Yurp in the oil business who has a very good grasp of all sorts of market information we normally rarely hear about (premiums paid in Dubai, activities of swap dealers, storage situation in various ME countries, and other esoteric data points of this sort). Anyway, he has been saying for months that the physical market is much tighter than people think. Note also the strength of the Russian stock market - it rarely diverges this much from the oil price. Imo this is probably also a subtle hint that oil prices are set to rise."
- Should there be a trade-war pause, oil might head up, or at least not go down, or not by much, good until 20th December
- Should I be putted on, should have chance to get out as equity melt-up energises all stuff
(2) Did nothing on other fronts, except may have chanced upon (9 in August) Jack's true passion
- after we somehow got the Jack to try many activities, the Jack by and by plays soccer but perhaps only because his friends do it, and he is social.
- he is doing piano only really to earn IT time, albeit he seems quite good at the instrument even as it is not his passion
- he likes computer games, mainly to do w/ strategy re war, tactics to do w/ more war, and construction and economic management by city simulation
- he only gets iPad on the weekends and public holidays, and this day I installed iportfoliotrader.com app to set him up for model portfolio management, migrating from the earlier but less handy Yahoo Finance (does not automatically keep track of cash, and is cumbersome to do multi-currency / international trades.
He gets to keep his winnings after accounting for losses. He took to the game like french fries to burgers, Coca Cola to pizza, and ... well ... you know, and got more conversant with the program than I am, faster, and w/ good recall for symbols, and whatever.
He asked the right questions (why cannot one short a billion ounces of palladium?), and his favourite trade by far is the pair trade long PPLT and short PALL. He knows that palladium is used for whatever and for the bezel on the watch, and the platinum is for more or less same whatever and for the ring.
Better, this dinner time he wants to talk about GDXJ
as the Jack click around his app the very first time this morning ... today and tomorrow he is on school holiday due to PTA meetings. He now wandered off w/ his pals to do whatever. If a picture matches a thousand words, looking at someone just chanced on and discovering candy store :0)
(3) Positions now at ...
(3-a) Short TLT Dec 20th Put strike 138 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT?p=TLT&.tsrc=fin-srch @ 2.35
(3-b) Short SPY Dec 20th Put strike 298 finance.yahoo.com @ 6.43
(3-c) Short ERIC April 17th Put strike 7 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.13 (in volume twice as large as Long in NOK Put)
(3-d) Short ERIC Apr 17 '20 Put 8 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.29
(3-e) Long NOK April 17th Put strike 3 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.12 (in volume half as much as Short in ERIC Put)
(3-f) Long NOK Apr 17 '20 Put 3 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.12
(3-g) Short SIL Dec 20 '19 Put 28 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.30
(3-h) Short GDXJ Dec 20 '19 Put 37 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.85
(3-i) Short MCD Dec 20 '19 Put 180 finance.yahoo.com @ 1.59
(3-j) Long MU Dec 20 '19 Put 45 finance.yahoo.com @ 1.14
(3-k) Short NVDA Dec 20 '19 Put 200 finance.yahoo.com @ 8.45
(3-l) Short QQQ Dec 20 '19 Put 200 finance.yahoo.com @ 4.14
(3-m) At 1/2 of (3-l) position, long QQQ Mar 20 '19 Put 195 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ?p=QQQ&.tsrc=fin-srch @ 6.72
(3-n) Long (forever) HKEX finance.yahoo.com at all sorts of prices and taking in dividends (meaning position at loss state) at dividend adjusted cost basis of HK$ 282 (ouch)
(3-o) Long Hang Seng Bank finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 169.90
(3-p) Long China Mobile finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 66.45
(3-q) Long paper gold since forever, cost basis ~$1,337 per troy ounce
(3-r) Palladium against platinum
- Short Palladium PALL finance.yahoo.com @ 169.01
- Long Platinum PPLT finance.yahoo.com at 86.86
- Short PALL again finance.yahoo.com @ 168.14
- Long PPLT again finance.yahoo.com @ 88.09
(3-s) Short USO finance.yahoo.com December 20th Put strike 11.50 @ 0.40
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