| | >> not 40-45%.
You're still not getting it. National polls aren't the story. State polls are.
Your 40-45% comes from pollsters calling a thousand phone numbers drawn at random from all over the country. Arkansas, NY, California, South Dakota, etc. It is analogous to a popular vote. And we know how much value you get from that. Your entire complaint with electoral college is it gives more power to small states. Why would you sample them as though that law didn't exist?
These are the polls that matter, and there is no 40-45%. And you can see they depend slightly on who the Democrat candidate it, but they are a lot closer generally than you suggest and it is early. These are the states that will control the outcome of the general election.
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 46, Trump 44 | Biden +2 | | Florida: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Trump 46, Warren 42 | Trump +4 | | Florida: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Trump 45, Sanders 44 | Trump +1 | | Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 46, Trump 44 | Biden +2 | | Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Warren 45, Trump 47 | Trump +2 | | Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Sanders 47, Trump 46 | Sanders +1 | | Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 46, Trump 45 | Biden +1 | | Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Warren 44, Trump 46 | Trump +2 | | Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Sanders 44, Trump 45 | Trump +1 | | Nevada: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Biden 49, Trump 51 | Trump +2 | | General Election: Trump vs. Biden | IBD/TIPP | Biden 53, Trump 43 | Biden +10 | | Nevada: Trump vs. Warren | Emerson | Trump 51, Warren 49 | Trump +2 | | Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders | Emerson | Sanders 50, Trump 50 | Tie | | General Election: Trump vs. Sanders | IBD/TIPP | Sanders 51, Trump 44 | Sanders +7 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 45, Trump 44 | Biden +1 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Biden 56, Trump 44 | Biden +12 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Warren 40, Trump 45 | Trump +5 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Warren | Emerson | Warren 54, Trump 46 | Warren +8 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Sanders 46, Trump 42 | Sanders +4 | | Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders | Emerson | Sanders 57, Trump 43 | Sanders +14 | | North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 46, Trump 48 | Trump +2 | | North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Trump 48, Warren 44 | Trump +4 | | North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Sanders 44, Trump 48 | Trump +4 | | Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Biden 49, Trump 46 | Biden +3 | | Arizona: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47, Warren 46 | Trump +1 | | Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Trump 49, Sanders 45 | Trump +4 | | Iowa: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena | Trump 45, Biden 44 | Trump +1 | | Iowa: Trump vs. Warren | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47, Warren 40 | Trump +7 | | Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47, Sanders 43 | Trump +4 | | Iowa: Trump vs. Buttigieg | NY Times/Siena | Trump 45, Buttigieg 41 | Trump +4 | | Texas: Trump vs. Biden | UT/Texas Tribune | Trump 46, Biden 39 | Trump +7 | | Texas: Trump vs. Warren | UT/Texas Tribune | Trump 46, Warren 39 | Trump +7 | | Texas: Trump vs. Sanders | UT/Texas Tribune | Trump 45, Sanders 40 | Trump +5 | | Texas: Trump vs. Castro | UT/Texas Tribune | Trump 46, Castro 33 | Trump +13 |
|
|
