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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis
AQN 5.840-1.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: WalterWhite who wrote (634)11/9/2019 11:33:57 PM
From: Underexposed  Read Replies (1) of 914
 
CDN: Canopy Growth Group [TSX:WEED] [NYSE:CGC]



CPG / WEED.TO looks to me like a double bottom may be in? Maybe up on industry sentiment turing and a delayed reaction to Drake getting involved too? What do your charts say, if you have the time of course.
I always have time for interesting questions :)

I am very surprised at the decline of legal MaryJane stocks. I confess I was caught up in the emotion of the legalization of the product about 18 months ago. It seemed like a slam dunk back then. Name drug stores like Shoppers Drug Mart creating alliances with growers. It all shaped up for a huge shot in the arm for Canadian stocks.

I made a very small amount of money on the lead up to legalization but bailed when things became erratic. I did not really like the number of companies that entered as growers. How does one evaluate winners from losers back then and I knew there would be a salting out of companies. The commodity became like a gold stock to me.... intrinsically one felt there was value there but just as one dove in the market would turn sour... I hate that uncertainty

None of the major MaryJane companies are doing anything in the last year....here is a comparison of the top ten Stocks with their American tickers



As you can see, there is no clear winner here and that is the reason why I have stayed away from such stocks.

But things may have changed and it is time to revisit them and thanks for bringing this to my attention.

Here are my first 2 charts.... I have placed the "Trigger" chart first as it may have a double bottom.






This is NOT a double bottom....the only thing that makes it look like a double bottom is the 12.69% jump in price on Friday... it is a nice bounce but I don't think it is sustainable....why? Well look at the effect of the bounce on the the trigger indicators.

The Slow Sto cannot rise above 20
The MACD was flat leading up to Friday and gave the smallest uptick possible
The BBwidth also gave the barest of upticks.

Remember, the signal for a bullish breakout would be a steady rise of the Slow Sto reaching for 80.... followed by a strong rise on the MACD and finally a sudden positive rise in the BBwidth.

This bounce in price is a one-of IMHO... nice to see if you were psychic and purchased the stock on Thursday.... But If you did I would either sell immediately on Monday or at the very least slap a limit stop-loss on the stock.

Now the P&F chart

That bounce on Friday was off the support at about $25.00 which now looks pretty strong as a support. Now look at where we are headed.... directly at a resistance at $29.00... this is an equally strong resistance. To breach this resistance on Monday would be a good thing... we shall see if the momentum is there to pull this off.

The column SMAs don't show any sign of turning bullish right now.



Well.... there is potential here in my Sentiment chart but I would not bet the ranch on it at this point.

I normally ignore the Par Sar unless we are in the throat of Bollie squeeze.... I am not sure if this is the final bollie squeeze yet.... However there is a potential share price reversal ... it will depend on breaching that P&F resistance. Neutral

The Force (30) reminded me of a submarine lurking below the surface, putting up a periscope to see if it is clear to rise above the surface. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and make this a neutral

The RSI(30) has been Neutral Bearish for a long time as it has been flat for a month.That bounce doesn't mean much to me unless it rises above 50.

The DI +/- Has been neutral bearish for a couple of weeks... if it continues to converge that may change but again it will depend on that P&F resistance breach if it occurs.

The Ichimoku Chart is NOT GOOD

The tiny circle inside the larger one shows the thin red/blue lines bearishly diverging despite the share price bounce.

as you can see the share price is miles under a red cloud.... I don't see any weak spot to hope for. The outer edge of that cloud forms another strong resistance. A red cloud is like walking in Molasses... not easy to pass through.very bearish


The On Bal Volume has been neutral for a while

The CCI is mildly bearish
The CMF is mildly bearish right now

Conclusion

No... I don't see a double bottom here.... it should be more defined then imagined for it to be true.

A double bottom should almost be a guarantee of a bullish outlook.... not a maybe.....

Here is a double bottom that is obvious (the way I like them :)



See how well defined it is and when it reaches the top of the neck on the right side ... it takes off. Too many times I have seen pseudo double bottoms and tops and if you don't do a complete analysis as I have done here you may be setting yourself up for a loss.

As far as WEED.TO goes.... I don't believe it is out of the woods by a long shot.... none of the MaryJane stocks are IMHO.... which puzzles me as to why all are dropping... so far the best of breed is the one who loses the least....

UE
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