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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting
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Don Green
rdkflorida2
To: Fintas who wrote (32481)11/15/2019 5:15:15 PM
From: AdvocatusDiaboli2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 34818
 
AD, I'm surprised you think a 13% for the SPX retrace is a big deal.


I certainly would consider any retrace that takes us down to 2700 a big deal and not NADA.

I stated back on 6 October : "The two big issues that will steer market direction as I see it are the Trade Negotiations with China and the likelihood of a extremely messy Senate Impeachment Trial.
If Trump eases up on China and agrees to a watered down deal in the short term, then I think market will respond with a swift ride up to 3300. If he spits the dummy and the whole negotiations fall apart then tariffs aplenty could drive this market down to the 2018 lows."

My belief is that market sentiment is beginning to factor in a belief that Phase 1 is almost done and dusted and a handshake is near. That can be the catalyst to take this market to 3300 fairly rapidly.

To get that retrace to 2700 that Cassandra is predicting would I believe mean that Trade talks have reached a serious dead end or some yet undisclosed evidence at the Impeachment Circus has DJT groggy on the ropes.
Either of those could be what the Bears have been praying unsuccessfully for for years.

You have oft reminded readers that this Bull market will eventually retrace around 40%. The phrase "Not if but when" comes to mind. On that point you have my agreement.

To get a 40% fall first requires a fall of 13%.
So at 13% down I am sure everyone would be considering it a big deal and there would be some real PANIC.

Cheers

AD
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