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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders
LRCX 147.44-0.6%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Clarksterh who wrote (1757)1/23/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (2) of 5867
 
Clark, I re-listened to the CC (masochistic!) ... and I agree, the timing of the GM improvements is vague. According to the Company, with the projected downturn in revenues for fiscal Q3, the absorption of fixed costs may contribute a 1% decline in GM. In their words, this should be more than offset by gains in materials and warranty (product improvements). So my guess is an increase in GM from 38.5% to about 40% for this quarter.

The other positives not mentioned earlier:
1) Significant additions to management - especially manufacturing and materials management.
2) 300 mm is on target (this is critical).
3) Mr. Bagley is forecasting a "strong rebound" for revenues in late '98 (early '99). They may even achieve '99 revenue goals (some of this will be driven by 300 mm - one of the main reasons to own semi-cap-equip companies)

The etch discussion (as I understood it) involved the future evolution of etch products. Management sounded like they had a good handle on the future direction and they thought their products where well positioned. I am not qualified to comment further.

Many institutional investors will probably wait until there is evidence of 1) GM improvements (LRCX is a turnaround) and/or 2) market conditions improve. Your July/Aug time frame sounds right!

Regards, Bill
P.S. I'm looking forward to AMAT's comments.
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