Updating Message 32422672
(1) One day closer to BABA day Message 32423653 <<subscribed to the Alibaba IPO>> ... the move by BABA is in alignment w/ the de-risking need in view of trade- , currency-, capital-, technology-, etc-wars that may become the flavour of one or more decades, and
(1-i) Is likely the first of many if not all China companies listed in USA in answer to hard-fork of global order and bifurcation of the universe.
(1-ii) I make no judgement call on the advisability or anything re the wars, and just noting that the evolution of initiatives should give rise to opportunities, w/ inflation of somethings and deflation of other things, in various domains
(1-iii) Ignoring the Armstrong overarching macro re fund flow and confidence, or disregarding the various physical and metaphysical wars may not be good for portfolio
(1-iv) Only accumulating gold may be safest but boring and in any case may not work out
(1-v) The portfolio must generate current income, and we are where we are, with nice tools gifted by Internet and the markets
(2) Did ...
(2-i) Long MCD finance.yahoo.com @ 194.30
Even as I hold the position <<Short MCD finance.yahoo.com Dec 20th '19 Put strike 190 @ 2.29>>
Planning on shorting the Call on MCD a few days or weeks from now.
It is not that I get excited about burgers or even know much about the company, but more given that I suspect melt-up and needed to stake a claim on something, anything with bit more of possibly quicker flicker upward than the ETFs
(2-ii) Must soon consider long call on the ETFs. Hard trigger to pull when am surrounded by bears breakfast, lunch, and dinner, eating the same food, drinking the same wines, and echo-ing the same watch & briefs.
(3) The Jack
Home school yesterday afternoon was good; quality time.
Shared dialogue w/ the life guard, as well as the neighbours we ran into, about Hong Kong.
Also ran into a property agent. There are apparently now retail real estate selling at bid, close to residential real estate pricing.
Home school this afternoon, after Jack gets done w/ the tutors in the morning.
School likely shall open tomorrow (Wednesday). HK schools were ordered to close since last Wednesday. All the kids are excited for all sorts of reasons. Society is dynamic aka not-boring, or instructional.
(4) Positions now at ...
(4-a) Short ERIC April 17th Put strike 7 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.13 (in volume twice as large as Long in NOK Put)
(4-b) Short ERIC Apr 17 '20 Put 8 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.29
(4-c) Long NOK April 17th Put strike 3 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.12 (in volume half as much as Short in ERIC Put)
(4-d) Long NOK Apr 17 '20 Put 3 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.12
(4-e) Short GDXJ Dec 20 '19 Put 37 finance.yahoo.com @ 0.85
(4-f) Long (forever) HKEX finance.yahoo.com at all sorts of prices and taking in dividends (meaning position at loss state) at dividend adjusted cost basis of HK$ 282 (ouch)
(4-g) Long Hang Seng Bank finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 169.90
(4-h) Long China Mobile finance.yahoo.com @ HK$ 66.45
(4-i) Long paper gold since forever, cost basis ~$1,337 per troy ounce
(4-j) Palladium against platinum
- Short Palladium PALL finance.yahoo.com @ 169.01
- Long Platinum PPLT finance.yahoo.com at 86.86
- Short PALL again finance.yahoo.com @ 168.14
- Long PPLT again finance.yahoo.com @ 88.09
(4-k) Short KO finance.yahoo.com Dec 20th '19 Put strike 52.50 @ 0.99
(4-l) Short MCD finance.yahoo.com Dec 20th '19 Put strike 190 @ 2.29
(4-m) Long MCD finance.yahoo.com @ 194.30
(4-n) Am fairly sure need to do something more about PALL / PPLT - waiting for expected PALL 'recovery' relative to PPLT
(5) Am listening in on the annual general meeting of real estate fund based in Hong Kong-Singapore but the meeting is held in Tokyo given the Hong Kong street kinetics. The fund has billions invested all around Asia (Korea, Japan, China/Taiwan, HK, Australia, SEAsia) under management and its shareholders are global institutional and private investors including IBM, Intel, Calpers, etc, as well as European and American insurance companies and two Asian sovereign funds.
The look, amongst and through ZIRP / NIRP, WeWork, burning HK, etc etc, is not great, but interesting. Marking downs happening, iow, opportunities for the future beginning to be formed :0)
(5-i) It is all on, and comes to the USA FED primarily, and China PBOC secondarily.
(5-ii) 2020 should be interesting. |
