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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (62899)	11/21/2019 12:07:46 PM
From: FIFO_kid2	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 78671

1) I have used all investing methods with some success but I can say I made the bulk of my profits and historically dedicated a larger portion of capital towards contrarian investing and prefer stocks with no coverage. My first success was purchased when I was 16 General Public Utilities GPU and sold it for a 20 fold gain 10 years later on my cost free shares. In the past it seems the risk is better buying perceived junk that has some moat and waiting for the cycle to turn than chasing a winner that is eventually due to disappoint unless you are 100% certain the sector/company is secular. There have been excellent companies that became cigar butts. To set one of a few examples AAPL in 2000 had no long term debt $16/ share in cash on the balance sheet and a $20 stock price and that was before its many splits. 2) I can say my preferred method of investing has been very challenging since 2012 where I have averaged a 26% compounded return from the late 1980s up to that point of time until then. Granted I have made a bad mistake namely with Crocodile Gold (now KL which has gone up 115 fold in 5 years since my average cost where I had a large position for a penny stock. At this time I can say with many out of favor industries targeted for planned obsolescence. The street sets a very high bar for the company that they know they can't meet and never revise it downward and the process of consistent misses starves the company of capital and eventual failure or a merger at a very low price coupled with managements only interested getting what they can get through salary . This early this year have come to the conclusion with a permanent QE derived zombie economy where the Fed won't even allow a market to collapse on a weak business cycle where they have in the past I have concluded index investing is a better choice or if I can find a mutual fund that solely specializes in all high margined government derived business and invest accordingly on easing and tightening schedules and putting more capital towards that and honestly I think markets going forward will act more like Japan has in the last 3 decades. My mother was my interest in investing at a very young age who took more of a Peter Lynch approach. Her expertise was shopping and bought 25 shares of McDonalds on the IPO and 16 years later had 25000 shares from splits. She also bought Wards in the 1970s which changed its name to Circuit City which ended up to be the highest return stock during the 1980s decade. As for Buffett I went to college in Omaha during the 1980s so I have been exposed to him all along but he needs business cycles for his method to work also. 3)I wouldn't have changed a thing other than some errors on determining what is business is cyclical and secular. Selling a stock is much tougher than buying IMO. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is my favorite investing book and personally hate Keynesian economics with a passion where connected bad actors never fail.

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