Paul -
Thanks for your detailed answer.
Re: "Assuming comparable yields, a 0.25 micron conversion will allow Intel to support the Pentium MMX to Deschutes conversion with only a minor impact on volume"
With unit sales volume increasing by 15-20% per year, if Intel doesn't continue to shrink its chips, then it'll have to build more fabs. As you state, Intel is building new fabs in Ireland and Israel, but if these only add 15% or so in unit volume capacity then Intel will only be able to handle the normal market growth for their current products.
Since INTC will have to make more chipsets (440BX) and high end CPUs (Merced) than before, it looks like there may be a capacity problem. As you said, "To some extent, DEC's FAB 6 that Intel is acquiring may be a critical addition for this purpose."
According to my rough anaylsis, it seems that completing the acquisition of DEC's plant will be neccessary for Intel to satisfy its customers' orders once these new products are ramping. If this is true, what are Intel's alternatives if the DEC deal falls through? If I remember correctly, the "delayed" fab 16 was actually reassigned to other products, so it might not be available to handle this problem.
Aaron |
