Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 307.08

+2.0%

10:05 AM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (14997)	1/23/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Teri, The dow e around 420 in '97, for a trailing pe of 18.3. If e are flat this year, currently projected at 465-470, what can the downside be with rates so low? Dow 7000 is a pe of 16.6. Dow 6500 is a pe of 15.4. At the same time, is a pe of 20, with falling e, and rates so low, out of line? Coming out of down earings in last recessions, pe's go up anticipating growing e. So perhaps things should adjust down now, but later this year when e accelerate, pe's should go up. A dow 9240 at this time next year is not out of line.( 420 x 22 ) My take on the Dauvin quote is that he thinks that the undercapacity may occur this year, and then may continue into 1999-2000.

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