I've heard that this number was meant to be 186,000 copies, not 18,600. I can't confirm this as fact, but others I've spoken to believe this number was way off. If THQI sold only 18,600 copies of Pax in Q4, my estimate would drop to around $0.43 for Q4. If THQ sold 186,000 copies, my estimate would drop to ~$0.58. I suppose we'll see, but I have had conservative estimates for 1998 sales of Pax, considering the acquired inventory by retailers will cause them to slow the rate of reorders. Even if the stores haven't sold many units, THQ can still count them as sales. But as long as THQ doesn't allow returns for Q4 shipments, the initial shipments of 200,000 units may still be recorded in Q4. If Pax sells only 1 copy in Q1, my estimate is still $0.28. Even without Pax, THQI is a great value.
Todd |
