Vantive Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (1500)	1/23/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) of 3033

I agree with almost everything you say. Usually, euphoria and gloom & doom take turns creating wild volatility. A couple of good quarters and the stock goes crazy (1996), a couple of poor quarters and the stock tanks. I call Q4 a good one. You are right about recognition of revenues in 1996. I think the estimate for the June, 1996 quarter was for $.08 and then ended up doing $.23... They grew revenues nearly 50% sequentially and their operating margins swelled. The stock then tripled in three months and Steve F and I were living large. You can see just how much momentum rules the markets these days. Vantive's business is growing more consistently now and still showed 80%+ growth in 1997. They have received negative multiple points for being a more steady company. Nobody can see out even 1 quarter much less 6 so in theory, your analysis is right-on. However, they could have a really good March quarter (up 10-15%) and then blow up in the September quarter. What does the stock do then? Go to $45 then to $15.... Net net, VNTV has received no multiple expansion for all its execution in 1997, especially as competitors were falling left and right. I have to believe 1998 will be easier than 1997 was, but we shall see. Vantive used to go up and down based on earnings acceleration and decelleration and I have made great money anticipating this since it IPO'd. In fact, this is the first time my trading hasn't proven very profitable in this stock. I am disheartened with today's events but I am still up a few bucks so I will stick it out for now.

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